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Hello. Gold broke the higher restrict in 2024. And it nonetheless reveals no signal of stopping. New threats of tariffs from Trump and a failed peace deal add extra uncertainty and, therefore, could push Gold up for the following few weeks. I do not assume Gold will probably be rising without end, although. Because the pic reveals, the final time it rose so shortly was in 2020. It misplaced a 3rd of its acquire within the subsequent 12 months. I don’t assume it is going to begin rolling again in March. I’ll control the political occasions this month, and I’ll replace this evaluation initially of April.
What about Oil? As we will see within the pic, Oil has already tried 3 instances to interrupt the 50-week common, and all in useless. Oil continues to go down since its peak in 2022. It’s the tariffs that threaten to decelerate the financial development. It’s nonetheless unclear whether or not Trump will apply tariffs to “vehicles and all different issues” from the EU. And it’s nonetheless unclear whether or not Trump’s promise to “drill it, child” will probably be carried out this 12 months. If these two occasions really happen, Oil could droop right down to about 40-50 USD per barrel.
The financial development can’t choose up, however the recession is over. Powell and Lagarde think about additional fee cuts. EURUSD is beneath the 50-week common, and it begins wanting up. If the world has had sufficient of the conflicts and the recession is over, it’s fairly the time for EURUSD to go away from the 1.0 parity and obtain its first purpose of 1.20. My forecast is that EURUSD will attain 1.10 in March.
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