Citi explores a Disney trade-off: ABC and India for Hulu (NYSE:DIS)

Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) strikes to settle years-long divided possession of streaming service Hulu — and to start what has been a sluggish pullback from its legacy linear tv enterprise — might arrange one thing of an asset commerce for the media big, Citi suggests.

Disney (DIS) and its Hulu co-owner Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are heading towards an early 2024 deadline to settle possession of the streamer, by a novel choices setup that enables for Comcast to promote its one-third stake to Disney, holder of the opposite two-thirds.

That requires what might be a heavy fee from Disney. Individually, although, Disney (DIS) has been exploring the prospect of promoting its ABC TV community within the coming yr, in addition to contemplating divesting a controlling stake in its India operations (to Reliance Industries).

The purchases and gross sales mixed might see Disney kind of buying and selling ABC and India for Hulu, Citi’s Jason Bazinet mentioned. Hulu’s decision is within the playing cards, and amid disputes about its valuation, the quantity Disney pays to take it over will finally rely upon third events, he instructed.

“Our bull case implies Disney would make ~$9.1B fee, whereas our bear case implies ~$19B fee,” he mentioned.

In the meantime, management of Disney’s India operations might come for about $10B, and assuming Disney retains 30%, it might add $7B in money or inventory with “modest modifications” to earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

And Citi estimates the ABC community and TV stations generate some $5.6B in income, and $920M in adjusted EBITDA. Given a 7x a number of of enterprise worth to EBITDA, Bazinet figures the ABC belongings would command about $6.5B.

“Underneath most eventualities, the potential proceeds from a sale of the India belongings and ABC are more likely to offset the Hulu fee,” Bazinet mentioned. “Nonetheless, if third events ascribe a really excessive worth to Hulu, Disney might have to make use of a few of its current money to accumulate Hulu.”

And whereas most of his eventualities do not have an effect on Disney’s fairness worth, an expensive value for Hulu (excluding synergies) might put “modest stress on Disney’s fairness.”