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Amid recession talk, high-yield spreads paint a totally different picture – SG (HYG:NYSEARCA)

April 7, 2025
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Amid recession talk, high-yield spreads paint a totally different picture – SG (HYG:NYSEARCA)

Yauhen Akulich/iStock by way of Getty Photographs

Whereas a number of indices are pointing to recession possibilities, high-yield spreads are projecting 0% likelihood of 1.

Société Générale analysts long-established a mannequin to estimate high-frequency Bayesian recession possibilities which can be implicit in numerous asset costs. Based on this mannequin, monetary property are

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